Two days of Nations League
Thursday, November 12 & Friday, November 13, 2026 · All kickoff times Eastern
Sportsbook snapshot: November 12, 2026, 8:56 a.m. ET. Research retrieved at 8:58 a.m. ET.
The international break gives us eighteen Nations League games over the next two days, and I’m starting with the totals. England–Croatia is the obvious match to put on the main screen Thursday. Friday’s best price on my board comes from a less glamorous spot: Moldova–Kazakhstan before the big afternoon window.
I’ve got one Bet of the Day for each slate, two more quoted selections, and a couple of angles to work through with Spain and Germany. The favorites don’t all need the same treatment. I want to separate the games where the scoring can come from either side from the ones where one team may do most of the work.
Thursday · Roz’s Bet of the Day
England–Croatia — Over 2.5 goals −215
England carry a 3.05-goal projection against Croatia’s 1.01, the highest combined projection on this two-day slate at 4.06. That gives us more than one route to three goals. England can cover most of the requirement themselves, while a Croatian goal would take some pressure off the favorite.
The Research model puts Over 2.5 at 76.63%, against a 68.25% break-even rate at −215. The separate, already-saved 5,000-run team simulation cleared this line in 3,768 runs, or 75.36%. Those are two estimates from related models, not independent proof, but the direction agrees.
The catch is the price: this is still a juiced total. England’s modal result in that saved simulation was 2–0, which loses the over. I’m backing the full distribution rather than picking one score, and I want −215 or better.
Odds as of November 12, 2026, 8:56 a.m. ET. Price limit: −215 or better.
Friday · Roz’s Bet of the Day
Moldova–Kazakhstan — Over 2.5 goals +145
This is the number that makes me look twice. Moldova are projected for 1.33 goals and Kazakhstan for 1.58, putting the match at 2.91. The model has the over at 55.63%, while +145 needs 40.82% to break even.
Neither side has to dominate for this to work. A 2–1 in either direction gets us home, and the goal split gives both teams a part in the case. The most likely individual score in Research is still 1–1, so there is an obvious way for this to fall one goal short.
The gap between our estimate and the quote is large enough to investigate carefully. It is not a promise that the market has made a mistake. Friday’s lineups and this exact total need another look before kickoff; +145 or better is the price I want.
Odds as of November 12, 2026, 8:56 a.m. ET. Price limit: +145 or better.
Two more prices on the card
Thursday · Plus-money alternative
Albania–Finland — Over 2.5 goals +178
The appeal here is +178, rather than an expectation of a wide-open game. Albania’s 1.53 and Finland’s 1.09 add up to 2.62 projected goals. The model clears three goals 48.65% of the time, which is below a coin flip but above the quote’s 35.97% break-even rate.
That distinction matters. A 1–1 is Research’s most likely score, and the separate saved team simulation has a lower 46.54% over rate. Both estimates leave room at this quote, but neither makes this a high-hit-rate play. Keep the price at +178 or better.
Odds as of November 12, 2026, 8:56 a.m. ET. Price limit: +178 or better.
Friday · Smaller model advantage
Bulgaria–Iceland — Over 2.5 goals +110
Iceland carry the larger goal projection, 1.65 to Bulgaria’s 1.10. The 2.75 combined total supports a look at three goals, with the model at 51.85% against 47.62% required at +110.
This is a much thinner case than the Moldova number. We can get there through an Iceland-led game or a contribution from both teams, but there is little reason to chase a worse quote. +110 is my limit.
Odds as of November 12, 2026, 8:56 a.m. ET. Price limit: +110 or better.
These are four individual selections across the two days. The two supporting picks are separate from the daily top plays.
Two angles between the lines
These are the unpriced leans behind the matchup reads. They need an offered market and a price before joining the betting card.
Spain can win without help from Czechia
Spain win 3,746 of the 5,000 saved team simulations, or 74.92%. The most common score is Czechia 0–2 Spain, appearing 754 times, or 15.08%. Research also keeps Czechia’s goal projection down at 0.59.
My read is Spain doing the work while keeping Czechia quiet. That points me toward a Spain win-to-nil angle before asking both teams to score. I still need a price for that extra clean-sheet requirement; the win rate above is not a win-to-nil probability.
Germany’s control could matter more than a shootout
Research gives Germany a 62.49% win estimate in Serbia, with goal projections of 1.85 for Germany and 0.79 for Serbia. The two leading exact scores are 0–1 and 0–2 from the home team’s perspective.
I’m leaning toward Germany getting the result with Serbia’s scoring contained. Germany to win and Under 3.5 goals is the combination I would price up. I have not verified a sportsbook quote or a joint hit rate for it, so this remains an angle rather than another priced play.
Trend Spotter: five teams on the radar
These are editorial selections from Trend Spotter using each team’s five available recorded games across competitions and venues. They are not a live Top Five ranking or additional bets. Counts describe the historical sample, not the probability of the next game; the shared England–Croatia meeting appears in both histories.
England
vs Croatia · Thursday · 2:45 p.m. ET
Scoring streak · 2+ goals in 5/5
England scored at least twice in all five available recorded games, with four of those matches clearing 2.5 total goals. The run includes the 7–0 away win against Croatia. The streak supports the scoring case, but that one huge result is a reason to keep expectations measured.
Croatia
at England · Thursday · 2:45 p.m. ET
Total-goals streak · Over 2.5 in 5/5
All five available Croatia games cleared 2.5 total goals. Croatia scored in four of them; the exception was that 0–7 against England. The over trend does not mean Croatia have to score for Thursday’s total to land.
Spain
at Czechia · Thursday · 2:45 p.m. ET
Win streak · Four straight
Spain won their latest four recorded games and scored at least twice in each. They are unbeaten across the five-game sample. That strengthens the control angle, but all four recent wins also involved conceding: the clean sheet is an extra requirement, not something this streak establishes.
Kazakhstan
at Moldova · Friday · noon ET
BTTS streak · Both scored in 5/5
Both teams scored in all five available Kazakhstan games, and four cleared 2.5 total goals. The recorded 1–2 home loss to Moldova sits inside that sample. It gives Friday’s over a recent-form explanation alongside the goal projection.
Germany
at Serbia · Friday · 2:45 p.m. ET
Lower totals · Under 2.5 in 5/5
All five available Germany games stayed under 2.5 total goals, including a 2–0 home win against Serbia. That fits the controlled-game read. It does not establish the price or joint probability for a Germany win with an under.
The full two-day schedule
All 18 fixtures are UEFA Nations League games. Times below are Eastern.
Thursday, November 12
| Kickoff ET | Matchup | Projected goals |
|---|---|---|
| 12:00 p.m. | Armenia vs Cyprus | 1.38–1.22 |
| 12:00 p.m. | Turkiye vs Belgium | 1.27–1.82 |
| 2:45 p.m. | Albania vs Finland | 1.53–1.09 |
| 2:45 p.m. | Czechia vs Spain | 0.59–2.26 |
| 2:45 p.m. | England vs Croatia | 3.05–1.01 |
| 2:45 p.m. | Italy vs France | 1.33–1.76 |
| 2:45 p.m. | Montenegro vs Latvia | 1.90–0.72 |
| 2:45 p.m. | San Marino vs Belarus | 0.54–2.46 |
Friday, November 13
| Kickoff ET | Matchup | Projected goals |
|---|---|---|
| 12:00 p.m. | Moldova vs Kazakhstan | 1.33–1.58 |
| 2:45 p.m. | Andorra vs Gibraltar | 1.29–0.94 |
| 2:45 p.m. | Bulgaria vs Iceland | 1.10–1.65 |
| 2:45 p.m. | Liechtenstein vs Azerbaijan | 0.60–1.78 |
| 2:45 p.m. | Luxembourg vs Estonia | 1.27–0.91 |
| 2:45 p.m. | Netherlands vs Greece | 1.84–1.04 |
| 2:45 p.m. | Scotland vs North Macedonia | 2.08–0.60 |
| 2:45 p.m. | Serbia vs Germany | 0.79–1.85 |
| 2:45 p.m. | Slovakia vs Faroe Islands | 2.07–0.64 |
| 2:45 p.m. | Slovenia vs Switzerland | 0.97–1.52 |
Fixture dates and kickoffs checked against UEFA’s official fixture list. Goal projections are Rozalytics Research estimates in home–away order.
One thing I’m watching
A favorite’s goal advantage does not automatically make the match an over. England’s 4.06 combined projection gives us a different starting point from Scotland’s 2.68 or Spain’s 2.85. I’m watching which games actually give the underdog a route to contribute, and which depend almost entirely on the favorite finishing its chances.
Bets & links
Use the Soccer Research Desk to check the matchups, the Nations League simulations for the saved Thursday forecasts, and One Touch to review the saved two-day board.
Prices above are named sportsbook quotes from the saved board as of 8:56 a.m. ET on November 12, not confirmed wagers. Check the dated fixture, total, lineups and available price before using a selection. Friday’s quotes also come from Thursday morning.
The card’s percentages come from the Research goals model. Where a saved 5,000-run simulation is cited, it is labeled separately. Projected goals are model estimates, not observed shot xG; the experimental international model has no validated starting-XI strength adjustment. All lineups were expected at the research snapshot. Model differences from a price are estimates, not demonstrated betting returns.