This week’s tournament
Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions · November 12–15 · Fazio Canyons, Austin, Texas
Odds as of November 10, 2026, 4:43 p.m. ET.
We’re back in Texas, with two weeks left in the FedExCup Fall and a new course to figure out. Fazio Canyons is a par 72 stretching to 7,451 yards, with four par 5s and some long par 3s. There’s no PGA TOUR course history here to lean on. I’m starting with the ball-striking picture, then looking for a price that gives us room.
This week’s card starts with three outright targets, followed by three ranked props. Then we’ll dig into ten more golfers from Trend Spotter. That screen is one of my favorite places to find a player whose game is moving before the headline finishes catch up.
Roz’s top play: Jordan Smith to win +3500
Smith gives me a top-five field rating at a price that still clears the model’s estimate. His recent results back up the direction: T8 last week, T16 at the Mexico Open and T4 at the Baycurrent Classic. He ranks 11th in strokes gained off the tee and ninth in greens in regulation for the season. That driving foundation and repeated opportunity with the irons are a good place to start at a new venue.
Trend Spotter has him eighth, with Form Surge and High Floor among his signals. I like that the case shows up in both the overall rating and the trend screen. The model’s fair outright is approximately +2894; I want +3500 or better for this play. He still needs a week where the scoring catches up with the chances he creates.
Jordan Smith’s SG Total across five available recent starts. Snapshot: November 10, 2026. Tap the image to open it full size.
Also on the outright shortlist
Neal Shipley to win +6500
This is a bounce-back case at the number. Shipley finished 74th last week, so I’m not dressing this up as a hot finishing streak. His driver is the attraction: the model profile carries +0.640 strokes gained off the tee, while his approach contribution is near flat at −0.023. He stays inside the top ten in our field ratings despite that weak latest result.
The irons and putter are the question. At +6500, I’m getting a price above the model’s estimate and accepting that those parts of his game need to improve. This is an outright swing, not a claim that he has the most complete current profile.
Bomb of the Week: Trace Crowe to win +7500
Crowe gives us a top-15 rating at a much bigger number. His fall includes a T3 in Utah and T11 at the Mexico Open, followed by T50 last week. Trend Spotter has him tenth, with SG Streak, High Floor and Finisher Form signals.
There’s enough underneath those mixed finishes to keep him on the card. His model profile is stronger on approach than off the tee, and I like having an iron-led longshot in the mix. The latest T50 keeps the enthusiasm in check; the appeal is +7500 against the broader profile.
Ranked prop card
These are three individual make-cut props, ranked by the model’s probability advantage at the quoted price. Ratings are the field model’s scores out of 100. All three advantages are small, so I would pass if the price shortens.
Ranked prop 1
1. Trace Crowe — Make Cut: Yes −255
This is the lower finish requirement behind the longshot outright case. Crowe has made the cut in each of his five verified fall starts, even with last week’s T50. His No. 13 field rating and High Floor signal support another weekend appearance. The model advantage is under one percentage point, so −255 is my limit.
Ranked prop 2
2. Austin Eckroat — Make Cut: Yes −260
The irons are the reason to start here. Eckroat finished T21 last week, and his last-five approach average is +0.557 strokes gained. He hasn’t finished inside the top 20 in his last ten starts, so I prefer the simpler task of getting through Friday. At −260, the model has a modest advantage. I don’t need to ask him for a big finish to use this angle.
Ranked prop 3
3. Jordan Smith — Make Cut: Yes −420
Smith brings the strongest field rating and highest estimated cut probability of these three. His recent T4, T16 and T8 finishes support the selection, but the price already reflects much of that strength. This is the thinnest play on the card: the estimate barely clears the break-even rate. At anything shorter than −420, I would leave it alone.
Trend Spotter: ten more golfers on the radar
There’s more on the screen than the betting card. These are the ten highest-ranked golfers in the corrected Trend Spotter who haven’t appeared above, ordered by their Spotter score. The field rating is shown separately. SG figures are strokes gained per round.
The top five from this Rundown’s ten-player watchlist, ranked by Spotter Score. SG and ball-striking figures average up to five recent starts. Snapshot: November 10, 2026. Tap to open full size.
Chris Kirk
Spotter No. 1 · Rating 69.5/100
Boom Trend / SG Streak.
Twelve of his last 20 rounds cleared +1.5 SG Total, and he’s gained overall in four consecutive starts. His last-five tee-to-green average is +1.32. There’s real support underneath last week’s T12.
Andrew Novak
Spotter No. 2 · Rating 67.5/100
Form Surge / SG Streak.
His latest three starts average +2.13 SG Total, up from −0.49 across the previous three. Four straight positive starts and the Mexico Open win explain why he’s near the top of this screen.
Doug Ghim
Spotter No. 3 · Rating 72.8/100
High Floor / Finisher Form.
Five top-20 finishes in his last five starts, with +1.97 SG Total and +1.64 tee-to-green over that stretch. That’s the kind of consistency I want to keep in front of me throughout the week.
Seamus Power
Spotter No. 4 · Rating 60.1/100
Form Surge / Putter Pop.
Three top-10s in his last five starts, including last week’s T8. His last-three putting average is +1.13, against +0.34 on approach. The improvement is there; the putter is doing a meaningful share of the work.
Blades Brown
Spotter No. 5 · Rating 69.7/100
Ball Striking Heater / Finisher Form.
He’s gained off the tee plus on approach in each of his last five starts, averaging +1.25 in that combination. Last week’s win came with a ball-striking foundation I can get behind.
Austin Smotherman
Spotter No. 6 · Rating 64.8/100
Approach Climb / Form Surge.
Two wins in his last two starts, with approach gains of +0.58, +1.23 and +1.38 across his latest three. The irons keep improving, even though the longer sample still includes some rough golf.
Ben Kohles
Spotter No. 7 · Rating 65.3/100
SG Streak / High Floor.
Eight straight tracked starts gaining SG Total. His last-five averages are +1.46 overall and +1.54 tee-to-green. Last week’s T25 didn’t break the underlying run of good golf.
Luke Clanton
Spotter No. 9 · Rating 59.4/100
SG Streak / Putter Pop.
Four straight starts gaining overall, with positive putting in each of the latest three. That three-start putting average is +1.21; his five-start tee-to-green average is +0.30. I’m watching whether the ball striking catches up.
Kensei Hirata
Spotter No. 11 · Rating 38.9/100
SG Ladder / Form Surge.
His last four SG Total results climb from −1.00 to +0.90, +2.11 and +2.91. He finished fourth last week and averages +1.02 on approach across his latest three starts. That’s a rebound worth tracking.
Kristoffer Ventura
Spotter No. 12 · Rating 66.3/100
Form Surge.
His latest three starts average +1.39 SG Total, compared with −0.04 in the preceding three. Last week’s T50 keeps the excitement in check, but the broader direction has improved.
One thing I’m watching
Three of Fazio Canyons’ four par 3s measure at least 215 yards. My read is that repeated long-iron approaches could expose the difference between a strong overall ball-striking week and a finish carried by a hot putter. That distinction deserves attention as the first rounds give us a picture of this course.
Bets & links
Use the Golf Research Desk to compare the field ratings, Trend Spotter and available prices. The prices above are a timestamped snapshot, not confirmed wagers. Recheck the golfer, tournament, market and price before using a selection.
Ratings and outcome probabilities are separate model outputs; a rating of 68.4/100 is not a 68.4% win probability. The Trend Spotter watchlist highlights patterns to investigate and does not add ten bets to the card.